United Airlines Slashes 2026 Profit Outlook as Fuel Costs Surge 23 Percent
The U.S. carrier projected fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 per share, short of market expectations. That outlook caps full-year adjusted earnings at no more than $7.22 per share, well below the $9 to $11 range United gave in July.
Fuel is the driver. United expects to pay an average of $4.80 per gallon in the fourth quarter, up about 23% from $3.90 in the third. Higher fuel costs have added billions of dollars to airline expenses this year, eroding profits and pushing ticket prices up even as demand has held firm.
Third-quarter adjusted earnings came in at $2.54 per share, a shade under forecasts. Revenue jumped 17.4% from a year earlier to $17.88 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30, narrowly missing the $17.9 billion analysts expected.
Net income climbed 8.5% to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 per share, compared with $949 million, or $2.90 per share, in the same period last year.
Passenger traffic rose more than 2% year over year, according to the airline. Unit revenue on domestic routes grew 14.5%, while international unit revenue rose 17.4%, indicating that higher fares fueled much of the revenue gain.
The report underscores the squeeze on the industry: robust bookings and pricier tickets were not enough to fully offset fuel costs or protect the earnings outlook.
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